Solar Storm Predicted for 2013
Friday, March 29, 2024

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A powerful solar (or "geomagnetic") storm has the potential to simultaneously damage multiple transformers in the electricity grid and perhaps even bring down large sections of it, affecting upwards of a hundred million people in the United States for many months, if not years. These huge transformers are expensive and difficult to replace, and not many are stockpiled in the United States for an emergency. In the worst case, the impact would be devastating: An outage could cost a few trillion dollars, with full recovery taking years. Not only would parts of the grid be compromised, but telephone networks, undersea cables, satellites and railroads also would be affected. A 2008 National Academy of Sciences study warned that "because of the interconnectedness of critical infrastructures in modern society," the "collateral effects of a longer-term outage" would likely include "disruption of the transportation, communication, banking and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration." Similarly, a recent Lloyd's of London report cautioned that "a loss of power could lead to a cascade of operational failures that could leave society and the global economy severely disabled." And we've had plenty of warning: In 1989 Canada's Hydro-Québec grid collapsed within 90 seconds because of a geomagnetic storm and the entire province was without electricity for many hours. (Luckily, Hydro-Québec depends on hydroelectric generation, which permits a straightforward and rapid restoration of power). And that storm was not nearly as strong as some historical ones: A May 1921 solar storm may have been 10 times as powerful. The public was far less dependent on electricity then and the system was far less interconnected at that time, so the damage was minimal. Even so, telegraph lines did blow their fuses. A similar storm now would be far more dangerous. The grid is much larger, more interconnected and running closer to its design tolerance, making the entire system highly vulnerable. A primary method of defending the grid is through early warning from NASA satellites that observe the Sun and detect solar storms that may be headed in our direction. Such warnings can alert utilities to take measures to protect equipment. Usually a couple of days of warning is available, though about a third of all major storms still arrive unheralded, and almost one-quarter of the warnings turn out to be false alarms.

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NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, which monitors energetic particles in the solar wind from a vantage point between the Earth and Sun, was launched in August 1997 and is, according to the National Academy of Sciences study, "well beyond its planned operational life" with no plans on the books to replace it. The 14-year-old satellite, as well as another even older one — the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) — "can fail anytime, no one knows," according to Michael Hesse, director of the modeling center at Goddard Space Flight Center. Both ACE and SOHO should be replaced and perhaps even be augmented by satellites orbiting closer to the Sun in order to increase the lead time of the warnings of any solar storms that are heading toward Earth. Relatively cheap hardening of the grid should also be done. For example, after the 1989 outage Hydro-Québec adjusted control relays and installed capacitors to protect their systems. Similar low-cost solutions should be applied to the U.S. grid before a crisis situation. Although the Western section of the U.S. grid has some of these protections, most of the Eastern grid lines do not. In contrast to the trillions of dollars that a once-in-a-century geomagnetic storm could cost, hardening the grid and launching the necessary early- warning satellites would be relatively cheap insurance: The price would range from a few billion dollars to perhaps a few tens of billions. So far, however, as an expert scientific panel tasked by the Homeland Security Department recently concluded the federal response to this potential crisis has been "poorly organized" and "no one is in charge." We ought to get our act together before a "Solar Sandy" catches us off-guard.

Historical Background:  Carrington Super Flare

From August 28, 1859, until September 2, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun. Just before noon on September 1, the British astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest flare, which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth, taking 17 hours. Such a journey normally takes three to four days. This second CME moved so quickly because the first one had cleared the way of the ambient solar wind plasma. On September 1, 1859, Carrington and Richard Hodgson, another English amateur astronomer, independently made the first observations of a solar flare. Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis which support the observations of Carrington and Balfour Stewart. On September 1–2, 1859, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, even over the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light. Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases shocking telegraph operators. Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire. Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies. On September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported, "Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance."

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